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What Current Polls Can Tell Us About the Midterm Elections

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Remember that polls are simply a snapshot in time but National Review's Jim Geraghty has shared the enterprising work of Sean Trende of UVA's Center for Politics that looks at the likelihood that a candidate with a certain percentage lead in the polls at this point in an election will go on to win.  Jim then looks at what Trende's chart tells us about the close races and the chances the GOP will send Harry Reid packing his office and moving to the minority leader's office in the Capitol.  First the good news:
Let’s start with the good news for Republicans.
In Arkansas, Tom Cotton is enjoying a 5.5 point lead. 86 percent chance of victory!

In Colorado, Cory Gardner has a 4 point lead. 91 percent chance of victory!

In Alaska, Dan Sullivan has a 4.3 point lead. 91 percent for him, too!

In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell has a 4.4 percent lead.

In Iowa, Joni Ernst has a 2.5 point lead, right between 2 and 3. Oooh, a 70 to 77 percent chance of victory!

(In Louisiana, Bill Cassidy has a 4.8 percent lead in a head-to-head matchup, but that race is almost certain to go to a runoff. Put that one aside for now.)

In case you were wondering, in South Dakota, Mike Rounds has a 9.8 percent lead in the RealClearPolitics average, but it would be 3.5 if you only used polls conducted in October. So you can interpret his odds of victory as either 97 percent or 91 percent if you round up to 4.

Here’s the kind of intriguing news for Republicans: In Kansas, “independent” Greg Orman’s lead is eight-tenths of a percentage point in the RealClearPolitics average. Rounding that to one, we find on the above chart that Orman has… a 44 percent chance of victory. Yup, somehow having a one-point lead 13 days from Election Day is actually a bad sign. However, by 12 days, the chance of victory with a one point lead jumps up to 88 percent; by a few days later, it’s down to 68 percent.

Georgia Michelle Nunn’s lead in the RealClearPolitics average is 0.4 percent. So she’s not even on the chart. Bump her up to one point for the sake of argument, and she’s in the same spot as Orman.Then he looks at the not so good news:
In North Carolina, Democrat Kay Hagan has a 1.6 point lead, which we’ll round up to 2 points. Bad news, Thom Tillis, that’s a 70 percent chance of victory for her!

In New Hampshire, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen also has a 1.6 point lead, which comes to a 70 percent chance of victory. Considering how steadily Scott Brown has closed these past weeks, you have to wonder if this is one of those 30 percent cases.

Every other Senate race has a 6 percentage point margin or higher.

This is a nice but not quite ideal scenario for Republicans. Assuming neither Georgia or Louisiana are resolved on Election Night, let’s assume Republicans lose the seat in Kansas and gain seats in Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Arkansas, Alaska, Colorado and Iowa. That’s a net gain of six seats! But as great as that sounds, it would give Republicans 50 seats and Democrats 48. If Democrats win both runoffs, they could keep control of the chamber by having Vice President Biden break the ties. If Cassidy wins the December runoff, Georgia’s January runoff becomes moot to control of the Senate.If you are not a political junkie, then it probably doesn't matter to you whether we will be following run off elections through Thanksgiving and Christmas.  But it matters which party controls congress.  We know what Harry Reid has done to gun owners.  By changing the rules of the Senate, he has allowed Obama to pack the federal courts with anti-rights judges.  It is in the best interest of gun owners that Harry Reid and his band of cohorts are sent into the minority, thus making it harder for Obama to appoint more anti-rights justices to the courts.  And the only way to do that is if all gun owners in states with U.S. Senate races turn out and vote for the candidates who support our rights.

Shooting Aids on Defensive Rifles

Virginia Shooting Sports Association -

In the below video, firearms instructor Rob Pincus notes that if you have a defensive rifle, you should know how to use it as an aiming device in unorthodox situations. If you can’t use your sights for any reason, a laser aiming device can help you predict where your bullets will go. Pincus demonstrates the use of a Crimson Trace Railmaster Pro green laser in situations where you have low contrast for a sight, or red-dot can’t be used or is broken, or in situations where you cannot get the rifle into a traditional shooting position.

Anti-NRA Ebola Theme Infects Media, Spreads Rapidly

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In the weeks since we last reported on media attempts to tie NRA to the Ebola crisis because of our opposition to the nomination of Dr. Vivek Murthy as surgeon general, the anti-gun echo chamber has continued to promote this absurd line of argument.

Obama claims executive privilege over 15,000 Fast and Furious docs

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The Obama administration is claiming executive privilege over more than 15,000 documents related to Operation Fast and Furious, including correspondence between Attorney General Eric Holder and his wife, according to records received Wednesday night by the watchdog group Judicial Watch.

New York: Controversy surrounds pistol permit application asking for Facebook information

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There's a reason we create private passwords for our social media accounts: the information contained therein is private.We're often warned not to give out these passwords — but how do we react if the police ask for them? That's what appeared to have happened in Watervliet recently, where a form included in the city's pistol permit application included a blank line for applicants to fill-in "Facebook & Password."

Virginia Beach City Council Approves Amended Anti-gun Proposal With Legislative Package

Virginia Shooting Sports Association -

Pilot Online reported yesterday that the Virginia Beach City Council approved an amended anti-gun proposal Tuesday night to be included with their legislative requests for the 2015 session of the Virginia General Assembly.   The chief of police, who requested that the council make the request, said this isn't about gun control but a way to make it easier to reunite the owner with his or her lost or stolen firearm:
The agenda item - one of 26 recommendations by the council - came at the behest of police Chief Jim Cervera, faced with the exact problem Frost described. Cervera said the proposal is an administrative change to make it easier to reunite gun owners with their property, not a gun control initiative.One has to ask, if this is simply a way to reunite the owner with their stolen property, why was the first request to make not reporting a Class 1 Misdemeanor carrying up to a year in jail, and now an undetermined civil penalty?  I had the opportunity to discuss the issue yesterday with Cam Edwards of NRANews's Cam and Company.

Backdoor gun control: D.C. sets impossible hurdles for carry permits

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The District’s newly minted concealed carry laws require gun owners seeking permits to complete 18 hours of firearms training.One problem: As of Wednesday, the day before a court-ordered deadline for the permitting process to begin, no instructors had been approved to teach the compulsory course.

Washington: Ex-official may be charged with stealing gun-measure yard signs

NRA ILA -

A former Bellevue City Council member once called the city’s “last liberal” could be charged with stealing yard signs in a duel over competing gun-background-check initiatives.Police said Margot Blacker, who served on the Bellevue City Council from 1990 through 1997, told them she took signs advocating I-591, which is supported by gun-rights supporters, as retaliation for the theft of signs promoting I-594, a measure that would expand background checks.

This Hill Article Says it All

Virginia Shooting Sports Association -

Virginia's U.S. Senate race is considered a long shot to send Mark Warner back to the private sector.  But the real prize in 2014 has always been seeing the GOP sending Obama's gun ban supporting Harry Reid packing his majority leader office to the minority.  While many pundits point to signs that the prize is within reach, this article in The Hill should energize gun owners and other voters wanting to turn back many of Obama's unpopular polices to work that much harder until the votes are cast.  The article specifically talks about the Colorado U.S. Senate race but could be about any of the races that the GOP are close to winning.  It's never over until it's over and a good number of election laws that allow voting by mail and to register right up to election day give our opponents the opportunity turn out their voters.
Every registered voter received a ballot in the mail last week, giving both Republicans and Democrats the opportunity to follow turnout in real time and pester holdouts. Coloradans can also register to vote through Election Day, allowing for the possibility that both parties could increase turnout.

Democrats boast that their ground game is better than ever.So, whether you live in Virginia where the challenger has a hard road ahead in the final two weeks, or Colorado, North Carolina, South Dakota or Kansas, now is the time to get out and do everything you can to see your candidate win, and see Harry Reid lose his job as Obama's top Lieutenant in the U.S. Senate.  You can find an NRA Campaign Field Rep or Election Volunteer Coordinator in your area and volunteer to help by clicking here.

Clerk defends himself from armed robbers, KBOB, Albuquerque, N.M. 10/21/14

NRA ILA -

A pair of armed robbers entered the Pajarito Corner Store in Albuquerque, N.M., and demanded cash. As the pair were leaving, the clerk went to lock the store’s door, at which point one of the criminals leveled a gun at him. The clerk responded by firing at the robbers, striking one and causing both to flee. The thieves fled in a vehicle, but were involved in an accident. Police caught up with the criminals, finding one dead and arranging for the other to be taken to a hospital. The surviving robber will be charged with murder in the death of his accomplice. 

Gun-control battle swings to Washington state

NRA ILA -

The center of the national debate over firearm background checks has, for the moment, moved to Washington state.Next month, residents of Washington state will get to vote on whether gun buyers should be subject to background checks for purchases made at gun shows or online.

Va. Beach OK's gun agenda item, triggering dissent

NRA ILA -

The city's legislative agenda isn't normally all that controversial for residents. But an item about guns this year has gotten people talking.The proposal asks the General Assembly to consider requiring gun owners to report lost or stolen firearms. Failure to do so within two days of realizing a gun has disappeared would result in a civil fine.

Tennessee: Residents petition for Farragut guns in parks ban to be lifted

NRA ILA -

Another effort to repeal Farragut's ban on guns in parks is underway. A change in state law in 2009 allowed handgun permit holders to carry their weapons into parks, but local governments could opt out. That's what Farragut decided to do and they've stuck with it when the issue came up again last year.

Pennsylvania: 2014 Legislative Session Ends With Victory

NRA ILA -

After four years of effort, the Pennsylvania House of Representatives finally passed critical firearms preemption legislation.  Yesterday, the state House voted to concur on the Senate amendments to House Bill 80 by an overwhelming 138 to 56 vote.  HB 80, when signed into law, will strengthen the state firearms preemption statute to further ensure that firearm and ammunition laws are consistent throughout Pennsylvania.

Washington: Majority of Washington State Sheriffs Oppose I-594

NRA ILA -

A majority of Washington State’s 39 sheriffs have come out in opposition to anti-gun Washington State Ballot Initiative 594.  The sheriffs oppose I-594 because it will not make anyone safer, will strain scarce law enforcement resources, will criminalize the lawful behavior of millions of law-abiding gun owners in Washington and will be unenforceable.  Instead, I-594 would vastly expand the state’s handgun registry and force law-abiding gun owners to pay fees and get the government’s permission to sell or even loan a firearm to a friend or family member.

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